Assignment Content
Scenario: There
has been a dangerous virus outbreak in 11 U.S cities (see Outbreak Cases). The
number of cases were reported over a 3- month time period. Consider the steps
involved in an outbreak investigation and use descriptive epidemiology to
create a hypothesis based on the data provided.
Address each point below to support your hypothesis.
Using Microsoft Excel create A bar chart of the total number
of cases across the cities
Identify the prevalence rate per 100,000 for the top 5 infected
states.
Explain other data or information that would be useful
Provide recommendation(s) based on the data provided.
Solved report:Virus Outbreak in 11 U.S Cities for Three Months
The case scenario
has presented the data of the number of cases that were reported for 3 months
after an outbreak of a dangerous virus a cross 11 cities in U.S. Considering
the steps involved in an outbreak investigation, the first steps should entail
identifying the source of the outbreak based on the patterns from the data
(Tumpey et al., 2019). The patterns can be generated by employing descriptive
epidemiology to portray the distribution of the virus and understand the source
of the outbreak across the 11 cities in U.S. the approach provides a way of
organizing and analyzing the data in order to understand variations in virus
frequency geographically and over a given period.
A bar chart of the total number of cases across the cities
Figure1: Bar Chart of 3
Month total cases of the virus across 11 cities in US
The bar chart
present by the figure 1 above show the total number of cases a cross the 11
cities across the states. A total of
2730 were reported in FL, 1980 cases in FL, 2500 cases in TX and 4000 cases in
New York which was the highest. Moreover, 895 cases were reported in AZ, 450
cases in LA, 775 cases in CO, 280 cases in UT, 900 case In NV, 565 cases in GA
and 1500 cases in OK. Based on the patterns of the distribution and
concertation of the virus in the cities, a hypothesis can be introduced to provide
possible explanations about the virus. According to the insights presented by
Dessalew Habte, 2020, the distribution of the virus is expected to be high in
the area of origin. The population also plays a significant part in the spread
of the virus across the region (Dessalew Habte, 2020).As a result, the best
hypothesis for the case scenario is the outbreak of the virus is more likely to
be in New York City which recorded a maximum number of cases when compared to
other major states like LA.
The top 5 infected cities include NY, TX, FL, OK and CA which recorded a total of 12710 cases. The prevalence rate for the top 5 infected states can be calculated by dividing the total number of reported cases in the population by 100,000. Thus, 12710 divided by 100,000 results to a prevalence rate of 0.1271 per 100,000 (12.71%). The bar chart also shows that the highest number of reported cases was in New York City which is the largest cities by population in the US.UT reported a total of 280 cases which was the lowest compared to other cities. While NY reported a total of 4000 cases over the 3 month period, only 450 cases were reported in Los Angeles (LA) which is also among the major cities in US. Thus, it is recommended that the outbreak investigation of the source of the virus across the 11 cities in US states should not be based on the populations. Considering that the concertation of the virus is expected to be high in the area of origin, it is very likely that patient zero can be spotted in NY where 4000 cases were reported by the data provided. Besides, the chart shows that the distribution of the virus across is higher in New York than other states in US.
References
Dessalew
Habte, A. (2020). Outbreak investigation steps in the case of 2019 novel
Coronavirus Infection, a review. Annals of Antivirals and Antiretrovirals,
4(1), 001–007. https://doi.org/10.17352/aaa.000007
Tumpey, A. J., Daigle, D., & Nowak, G.
(2019). Communicating during an outbreak or public health investigation. The
CDC Field Epidemiology Manual, 243–260.
https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190933692.003.0012
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